白发股神：2026年6月推文归档 3

📝 推文原文：

I’ve been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here’s my research/thoughts so far on it: They’re a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they’ve become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi,

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 把 OE Solutions（138080，韩国）定位为小型光收发器公司，类比 $AAOI，并指出它已成为全球少数 EML 玩家之一，和 $COHR、$LITE、Mitsubishi 同列。

📝 推文原文：

I’ve been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently.

Here’s my research/thoughts so far on it:

They’re a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI.

And they’ve become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi,

中文提炼：Serenity 把 OE Solutions（138080，韩国）定位为小型光收发器公司，类比 $AAOI，并指出它已成为全球少数 EML 玩家之一，和 $COHR、$LITE、Mitsubishi 同列。

📝 推文原文：

Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers. They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein? Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes. Maybe creatine is next with shortages.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 用夸张类比把健身补剂需求比作 hyperscaler 抢产能，强调 $SNDK 式价格上涨逻辑正在被复制到 whey protein / creatine 等品类。

📝 推文原文：

Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers.

They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein?

Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes.

Maybe creatine is next with shortages.

中文提炼：Serenity 用夸张类比把健身补剂需求比作 hyperscaler 抢产能，强调 $SNDK 式价格上涨逻辑正在被复制到 whey protein / creatine 等品类。

📝 推文原文：

Well, looks like prediction markets are about to get a ton of extra regulatory scrutiny. They should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed paid comments to game the X algorithm. I get offered deals like this all the time as the most subscribed to

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为预测市场将面临更强监管审查，并点名 Polymarket 的付费评论/算法操纵问题，属于平台治理与合规风险观察。

📝 推文原文：

Well, looks like prediction markets are about to get a ton of extra regulatory scrutiny.

They should also investigate how Polymarket pays influencers for undisclosed paid comments to game the X algorithm.

I get offered deals like this all the time as the most subscribed to

中文提炼：Serenity 认为预测市场将面临更强监管审查，并点名 Polymarket 的付费评论/算法操纵问题，属于平台治理与合规风险观察。

📝 推文原文：

Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto,
over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为贸易战的胜负关键在前沿供应链，而不是低附加值出口；她点名 $ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、Ajinomoto 等分布在日本、欧洲、台湾、韩国的关键环节掌握议价权。

📝 推文原文：

Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars:

Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics.

Not cheap Nike sock exports.

With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto,
over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards…

中文提炼：Serenity 认为贸易战的胜负关键在前沿供应链，而不是低附加值出口；她点名 $ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、Ajinomoto 等分布在日本、欧洲、台湾、韩国的关键环节掌握议价权。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 用极简回复延续其方法论风格——她更关注自己推导出来的目标市值、客户与增长，而不是技术图形或均线。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@0xHoward_Peng Sure

中文提炼：Serenity 用极简回复延续其方法论风格——她更关注自己推导出来的目标市值、客户与增长，而不是技术图形或均线。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 补充韩国 holding co 折价标的：Daeduck（353200）持有底层资产约 3.8x MC，涉及 FC-BGA 和 MLB；DB 持有 DB HiTek 约 3.7x 底层资产，Foundry 相关；Hyosung 底层资产约 3.6x MC，变压器相关。全部为韩国上市。

📝 推文原文（回复 @mkfilko）：

Yep Will look into Mirae soon. Forgot to add in:

Daeduck: ~28-30% of 353200, underlying assets ~3.8x of MC. FC-BGA and MLB related, also KR.

DB, ~3.7x of underlying assets (DB HiTek), also KR. Foundry related.

Hyosung, ~3.6x underlying assets, transformers. Also KR.

中文提炼：Serenity 补充韩国 holding co 折价标的：Daeduck（353200）持有底层资产约 3.8x MC，涉及 FC-BGA 和 MLB；DB 持有 DB HiTek 约 3.7x 底层资产，Foundry 相关；Hyosung 底层资产约 3.6x MC，变压器相关。全部为韩国上市。

📝 推文原文：

In terms of personal notes:

1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co.
2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent.
3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I’ve seen since $SIVE + Ayar + https://t.co/W43DrOp1ft

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 分享个人笔记：1）Priortech 持有 $CAMT 21% 股权，约 1.35x Priortech 自身市值，更像是控股公司；2）Bit Digital（$WYFI）NAV 折价不纯粹——大量稀释+非 AI 母公司；3）Wistron（3231.TW）是自 $SIVE+Ayar 以来见过的最优 holding co。

📝 推文原文：

In terms of personal notes:

1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co.

2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent.

3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I’ve seen since $SIVE + Ayar + https://t.co/W43DrOp1ft

中文提炼：Serenity 分享个人笔记：1）Priortech 持有 $CAMT 21% 股权，约 1.35x Priortech 自身市值，更像是控股公司；2）Bit Digital（$WYFI）NAV 折价不纯粹——大量稀释+非 AI 母公司；3）Wistron（3231.TW）是自 $SIVE+Ayar 以来见过的最优 holding co。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 明确表示不看移动均线。她的估值方法是：自行推导目标市值 → 与当前市值对比 → 评估机会+预计兑现时间，依据客户、营收、主题、增长等多维度。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@halldj00 I don’t look at moving averages.

I just derive what marketcap I think a company should be worth in my head.

Compare it to the current MC, and see if it’s worth the opportunity + est. time for that to play out. Given their customers, revenue, theme, growth, etc.

Then if it’s…

中文提炼：Serenity 明确表示不看移动均线。她的估值方法是：自行推导目标市值 → 与当前市值对比 → 评估机会+预计兑现时间，依据客户、营收、主题、增长等多维度。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为 $LPK 短期可能呈抛物线上涨。当设备供应商从“认证阶段”转入“量产阶段”（如 $AEHR/$AIXA 近期），市值通常被重定价到 $3-7B 区间。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@GalV19634050 So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic.

Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs.

But 99% are structurally more capped on where they…

中文提炼：Serenity 认为 $LPK 短期可能呈抛物线上涨。当设备供应商从“认证阶段”转入“量产阶段”（如 $AEHR/$AIXA 近期），市值通常被重定价到 $3-7B 区间。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 指出 $LPK 的措辞更微妙——“80% 客户正在用 LPK 设备进行认证”，这意味着转入量产时转化为 70% 份额目标是看多的。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@dheerajkaja It’s more nuanced, they said “80% are now qualifying with $LPK equipment”.

So having that convert into 70% targeted market share during HVM is bullish.

中文提炼：Serenity 指出 $LPK 的措辞更微妙——“80% 客户正在用 LPK 设备进行认证”，这意味着转入量产时转化为 70% 份额目标是看多的。

📝 推文原文：

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway:

• NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions.
• 70% market share targeted, unholy target.
• TAM greatly exceeds former projections.
• See a 4-5 base…

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 称自己完全错过了 $LPK 的会议纪要核心信息，认为市场也没注意到。最大要点：1）NASDAQ 上市已进入讨论阶段；2）70% 市占率目标（“unholy target”）；3）TAM 大幅超过此前预测；4）4-5x 基本面空间。

📝 推文原文：

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes.

And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway:

• NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions.
• 70% market share targeted, unholy target.
• TAM greatly exceeds former projections.
• See a 4-5 base…

中文提炼：Serenity 称自己完全错过了 $LPK 的会议纪要核心信息，认为市场也没注意到。最大要点：1）NASDAQ 上市已进入讨论阶段；2）70% 市占率目标（“unholy target”）；3）TAM 大幅超过此前预测；4）4-5x 基本面空间。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 称有时候只是分享想法看市场反应。$MXL 就是一个例子——她在 3 倍涨幅前精准喊出，但没有持仓，因为今年已经满仓配置。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@zhouyuan888 Sometimes, I just like sharing ideas to see how it does in markets or if others find it interesting!

$MXL, for example, I called out right literally right before that tripled for example, but didn’t take positions.

I’m basically fully allocated for this year, so if I do add a…

中文提炼：Serenity 称有时候只是分享想法看市场反应。$MXL 就是一个例子——她在 3 倍涨幅前精准喊出，但没有持仓，因为今年已经满仓配置。

📝 推文原文：

Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months…

🇨🇳 中文翻译： “提醒我，下次我指出瓶颈时，自己也要做多。“Serenity 复盘 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容）瓶颈投资机会——2个月内太阳诱电+211%、威世科技($VSH)+146%、村田+155%，而她只是分享想法并未下注。

📝 推文原文：

Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself.

Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back.

Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43%

Within the last 2 months…

中文提炼：“提醒我，下次我指出瓶颈时，自己也要做多。“Serenity 复盘 MLCC（多层陶瓷电容）瓶颈投资机会——2个月内太阳诱电+211%、威世科技($VSH)+146%、村田+155%，而她只是分享想法并未下注。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 选对赛道比选对个股更重要。即使 $POET 自身没有什么表现，它也会因为 $LITE/$COHR 等光子学主流标的而被市场关联提及。反之，即使 $RDDT 表现极好，它也会被 $META/$MSFT/$CRM 等大盘科技压制。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@_king142 Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important.

Even if $POET doesn’t really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others.

Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other…

中文提炼：选对赛道比选对个股更重要。即使 $POET 自身没有什么表现，它也会因为 $LITE/$COHR 等光子学主流标的而被市场关联提及。反之，即使 $RDDT 表现极好，它也会被 $META/$MSFT/$CRM 等大盘科技压制。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 之前分享过 MLCC 供应链清单，太阳诱电已经涨了约 3 倍。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@yuntungshieh Shared this list awhile back around MLCC.

Taiyo Yuden is up like 3x.

中文提炼：Serenity 之前分享过 MLCC 供应链清单，太阳诱电已经涨了约 3 倍。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 亲自回答——她认为光子学/激光器没有任何供过于求的可能，反而会极度供给紧缺。这和年初 YMTC/CXMT 所谓“中国 DRAM/NAND 泛滥”的媒体叙事一样，结果 $MU/$SNDK/三星继续大涨。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@amandaong23 i personally don’t see any chance of oversupply, if anything photonics/lasers will be extremely supply constrained.

it would be the same media playbook that went on with YMTC/CXMT earlier in the year with Chinese DRAM/NAND flooding narratives, now $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, and…

中文提炼：Serenity 亲自回答——她认为光子学/激光器没有任何供过于求的可能，反而会极度供给紧缺。这和年初 YMTC/CXMT 所谓“中国 DRAM/NAND 泛滥”的媒体叙事一样，结果 $MU/$SNDK/三星继续大涨。

📝 推文原文：

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I’m glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 正式发布核心三大主题——Neoclouds/能源（$NBIS）、存储（$EWY leaps）、光子学（$SIVE），并自称选对了每个赛道的最强执行者。同时提醒：不是所有想法都赚钱，尤其短期。

📝 推文原文：

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes!

My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics.

And I’m glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE.

中文提炼：Serenity 正式发布核心三大主题——Neoclouds/能源（$NBIS）、存储（$EWY leaps）、光子学（$SIVE），并自称选对了每个赛道的最强执行者。同时提醒：不是所有想法都赚钱，尤其短期。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 分享研究方法论——对非 Mag7 级别的标的自己做预测建模，认为散户看得到的机构报告通常偏差很大。以 $RPI 为例，consensus 预期营收增长 14%，Serenity 自建模型测算约 50%，且通常她的预测略更准确。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@KeshavS81752717 Thanks! Yeah I try to do my own forecast modeling if it’s not a large Mag7 type name, “institutional” reports that retail sees are usually very off.

Like with $RPI consensus was 14% revenue growth, I modeled ~50%ish at the time. And usually my own turn out slightly more accurate.

中文提炼：Serenity 分享研究方法论——对非 Mag7 级别的标的自己做预测建模，认为散户看得到的机构报告通常偏差很大。以 $RPI 为例，consensus 预期营收增长 14%，Serenity 自建模型测算约 50%，且通常她的预测略更准确。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 透露通过 $EWY（iShares MSCI South Korea ETF）做多三星（Samsung Electronics）。认为尽管涨幅巨大，但基于运营收入预测仍属低估。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@KristupasSimon2 Went long on Samsung through $EWY earlier on.

Still think it’s cheap given operating income forecasts.

中文提炼：Serenity 透露通过 $EWY（iShares MSCI South Korea ETF）做多三星（Samsung Electronics）。认为尽管涨幅巨大，但基于运营收入预测仍属低估。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 定性 $XFAB 为 2027/2028 远期储备标的，认为其 H2 有望独立于硅光子概念复苏，核心逻辑是汽车周期触底回暖。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@commieserenity $XFAB is more of a 2027/2028 play, but should recover independently h2 imo without silicon photonics, as they should come out of the automotive slump.

中文提炼：Serenity 定性 $XFAB 为 2027/2028 远期储备标的，认为其 H2 有望独立于硅光子概念复苏，核心逻辑是汽车周期触底回暖。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 继续痛斥空头——整个光通信行业处于激光/产能约束状态。$AAOI 以 $471m/月（约 56.5 亿美金/年）的营收预期进入市场，拥有大量独立供给且产能位于美国本土。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained.

Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.

中文提炼：Serenity 继续痛斥空头——整个光通信行业处于激光/产能约束状态。$AAOI 以 $471m/月（约 56.5 亿美金/年）的营收预期进入市场，拥有大量独立供给且产能位于美国本土。

📝 推文原文：

Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer: Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT. Bunch of retail sells. Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 将 Bernstein 称为“机构版 Jim Cramer”——给 Kioxia 发布 -50% 目标价后，散户抛售，Kioxia 随后暴涨并在当日再涨 +12%。批判卖方研报的“反指”属性。

📝 推文原文：

Bernstein is basically the institutional version of Jim Cramer:

Tells retail Kioxia looks like it’s going to crash, gives a -50% PT.

Bunch of retail sells.

Stock proceeds to skyrocket right after, with another +12% today.

中文提炼：Serenity 将 Bernstein 称为“机构版 Jim Cramer”——给 Kioxia 发布 -50% 目标价后，散户抛售，Kioxia 随后暴涨并在当日再涨 +12%。批判卖方研报的“反指”属性。

📝 推文原文：

Just a random thought, maybe someone can do a startup to solve this: Interesting trend I’m seeing is human-recognized content farm spam sites like “Ad Hoc News”. Flooding tens of old/repeated misleading AI news every day on specific companies for views. But it’s treated highly…

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 注意到一个有趣趋势——人工识别的内容农场垃圾网站（如“Ad Hoc News”）每天在特定公司上发布大量过时/重复/误导性 AI 新闻以获取流量，但这些内容却被平台高度推荐。

📝 推文原文：

Just a random thought, maybe someone can do a startup to solve this:

Interesting trend I’m seeing is human-recognized content farm spam sites like “Ad Hoc News”.

Flooding tens of old/repeated misleading AI news every day on specific companies for views.

But it’s treated highly…

中文提炼：Serenity 注意到一个有趣趋势——人工识别的内容农场垃圾网站（如“Ad Hoc News”）每天在特定公司上发布大量过时/重复/误导性 AI 新闻以获取流量，但这些内容却被平台高度推荐。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 用 “Avengers” 漫威梗评论 $INTC 正在组建“复仇者联盟”——延续 6/18 特朗普官宣 Intel+Apple 合作后，Intel 似乎正在汇聚多方合作伙伴形成战略联盟。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@LipBuTan1 @seokhee4 @intel $INTC just casually out there assembling the Avengers.

中文提炼：Serenity 用 “Avengers” 漫威梗评论 $INTC 正在组建“复仇者联盟”——延续 6/18 特朗普官宣 Intel+Apple 合作后，Intel 似乎正在汇聚多方合作伙伴形成战略联盟。

📝 推文原文：

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中文提炼：感谢用户 @SUOHA_AI 的正面分析文章。