白发股神：2026年6月推文追踪

📝 推文原文：

$SPCX is now trading!

And it’s now over $2.15T+ MC.

$SPCX 正式开市了！ 而且市值已经超过 $2.15T。

📝 推文原文：

All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct.

Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now?

That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours.

$SNDK 的空头基本”灭绝”了。 真的不敢相信都快到 $2000 了。 不过感觉大家都在屏息等待几个小时后的 $SPCX IPO。

📝 推文原文：

Bro I still can’t believe Japan’s WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls.

Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix.

Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy?

Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven’t fully been weaponizing it back yet.

So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?

真的不敢相信日本的 WF6 供应链被中国出口管制一锅端了——$TSM、三星、SK 海力士全被波及。 这是在玩全球供应链战争 / AI 霸权博弈吗？ 日本手握一堆隐秘垄断，但到现在也没真正”反向武器化”起来。 我在想这是不是 slippery slope（滑坡效应）的开端？

📝 推文原文：

VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today.

Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers.

This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are.

(disclosure: have positions in IQE)

VPEC 今天对外延片启动新一轮涨价。 对 $IQE 和台湾合晶（3081）这种外延片产能是”瓶颈定价权 → 真实需求”的正反馈。 加上 $MTSI 之前入股 IQE 锁产能，AI 链里这类”卡脖子”环节的弹性正在被验证。 （披露：本人持有 $IQE）

📝 推文原文：

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB : $97-> $372 $LITE : $330 -> $904 $AAOI : $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS , $RKLB , and $TSM ! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

一点点复盘——2025 年我”高信念”的核心标的，回头看表现都很好： $ALAB：$97 → $372；$LITE：$330 → $904；$AAOI：$30 → $175；其他还有 $NBIS、$RKLB、$TSM！ 那时候我粉丝还不到现在的零头。 期间我也错过/失去过对 ALAB 的部分信念（光互联代际切换太快），但那批标的中 $AAOI 当年还是 ~30 亿美元市值的小盘（现在 ~140 亿美元）。 所以现在还在这个量级的小盘——比如 $SIVE——是不是也该被多看一眼？ 很开心它们中的很多都走出了时间，而我近期大部分增粉，也只是因为大家看到我推的 $AXTI 等在时间中不断被验证。

📝 推文原文：

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100!

Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies…

Into the largest ones on Nasdaq

哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 都被纳入 Nasdaq 100 了！

看着 Astera、Rocket Lab 和 Weebius 从小公司一路长大…

进入 Nasdaq 最大的那批公司行列

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now.

Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran.

This market is so volatile…

只是提醒一下：如果你在想为什么指数和像 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这样的名字现在都在涨。

因为特朗普刚刚取消了对伊朗的打击。

这个市场真的太波动了……

📝 推文原文：

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector.

Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet).

As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases.

“The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers” per The Information.

Anthropic 的新消息看起来会给 Neocloud / colo 赛道带来顺风。

比如 $WULF、$CIFR、$WYFI、$HUT 以及其他还没点名的公司。

因为 Anthropic 正在推进它的首批数据中心租赁。

据 The Information 报道，这家 AI 公司已经和美国开发商签了十几份意向书。

📝 推文原文：

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently.

It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains.

Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply.

People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties.

But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields.

Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity.

It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible.

Also I believe in Jensen.

如果你注意到我最近的其他主题，也包括 800V DC 和 CPO。

本质上是在投资 $NVDA，这家美国 AI 国家队，并帮助它们把供应链补强。

很多技术难点都卡在良率和衬底供应上。

你总能看到有人因为激光产能、出口管制瓶颈等问题，就去做空 Nvidia 的供应链。

但如果去投资那些关键公司，让它们有更多 capex 去做 FAU 产能 / 良率提升。

或者去支持上游红磷 / InP 衬底，或 SiC / GaN 产能。

这会让原本技术上很难的事情，变成可能。

而且我信 Jensen。

📝 推文原文：

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI.

Since it’s ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.

Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand…

With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others…

If you haven’t noticed by now, they’re all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains.

Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones.

As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid.

I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it’s very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today.

Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America.

Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it’s good to change mindsets a bit so we don’t see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later.

US/EU don’t just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.

市场应该支持像 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军。

因为支持美国本土的关键 AI 基建，从激光制造到生产，是更合理的，而不是做空它们。

现在很多人把收发器都外包到亚洲，比如马来西亚或泰国……

但 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 等等，都是美国供应链的关键节点。

如果你注意到，现在这些公司也都在拿补贴，以强化西方供应链。

以前的交易思路是：做空正在成长中的美股 / 西方股，再用拿补贴的海外公司对冲。

就像当年能源 / 太阳能公司破产那样，这种思路后来在美国 AI 基建和电网上反噬得很厉害。

我想改变这种心态，因为我相信，现在去建设关键的西方供应链，比如光子学，是正和的。

尤其如果 $AAOI 在把生产迁回美国之后，真的能做到每月 4.71 亿美元收入。

与其希望它们失败、把供应链关键节点叫成 meme stock / 泡沫，不如换个思路，否则美国太阳能行业的教训可能会再来一次。

美欧也不是随便就给任何公司发补贴或 CHIPS 资金的。

📝 推文原文：

At this point I can’t tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro.

Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion.

And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX…

Anyone know?

现在我也分不清，$META 到 $MSFT 的回调到底是不是宏观导致。

还是 $SPCX 加上指数纳入，带来的流动性抽走。

机构是不是在提前交易纳指 100 以及围绕 SpaceX 的再平衡……

有人知道吗？

📝 推文原文：

that’s literally for you to decide.

If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B.

optical names are very volatile.

这件事字面上就是你自己来判断。

如果你认为它们能在 2027 年上半年末做到月营收 4.71 亿美元，那么我觉得以 $AAOI 13.4B 的市值来看，潜力还是挺高的。

光学名字波动一直都很大。

📝 推文原文：

not sure, we’ll see if it’s good or bad for overall markets since it might be a liquidity vacuum of people selling other assets for $SPCX!

But we’ll find out soon! For the USD at least, it’s very positive.

不确定，看看这对整体市场是好是坏，因为这可能会形成一个流动性真空——大家为了买 $SPCX，先去卖别的资产！

不过很快就知道了！至少对美元来说，这件事是非常正面的。

📝 推文原文：

Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say:

8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares.

Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO…

Don’t think there’s been any historical precedence like this yet?

哇，法兰克福银行的策略师说：

海外对 SpaceX（$SPCX）股票的需求，单日就可能再融资美国经常账户赤字的 8%。

围绕这次 Mega-IPO，市场会怎么反应，真的很让人期待……

我不觉得历史上有过类似先例？

📝 推文原文：

There was interesting research published called “Democratization of Retail Trading”.

That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments.

and found:

1. “WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks.”

2. “Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases.”

Their conclusion?

“We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice.”

I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options).

I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

最近有一份很有意思的研究报告叫《散户交易的民主化》（Democratization of Retail Trading）。

它研究了对 1.6 百万条 $RDDT（Reddit）上 WallStreetBets（WSB）论坛的评论，结论是：

1. “WSB 在识别表现最好的股票这件事上，几乎跑赢所有投行。”

2. “他们的平均回报能跟最顶尖的投行掰手腕，在某些情况下甚至跑赢他们。”

作者的结论？

“我们认为 WSB 确实可能成为一个免费可得、有价值的投资建议来源。”

我个人也觉得 WSB 确实在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些名字上很早布局，但在择时（尤其是期权）上经常错得很离谱。

真正藏 alpha 的地方，我认为现在是 X。

📝 推文原文：

Why do I keep getting these questions!!!

$XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations.

It takes time… Like October 2026, should finish up development.

Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they’ve been working on it since 2023.

Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth.

So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes.

I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized.

Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

为什么老有人问这个！！！

$XFAB 正在做一条硅光子晶圆代工的替代路线，对标 $TSEM 和 $GFS，而且有欧洲资金/产业背书 + $NVDA 评估。

这需要时间……大概到 2026 年 10 月左右能完成开发。

然后 2027 年进入放量，2028 年再放大到量产，因为他们从 2023 年就开始做了。

现在很多人还以为它只是个低迷的汽车零部件供应商。好在欧洲公司通常看 TTM 收入而不是前瞻增长。

所以某种程度上，它在带头做欧洲版的 $TSEM 硅光子代工 + 供应链，市值大概 11 亿欧元？ ASE 的研发主管们也会引用它，把它看作未来 CPO 路线之一。

我可能确实对很多东西都太早了，但这类标的的大部分风险/回报，来自于你愿不愿意相信它能商业化。

不然大家也可以直接走 Tower 这条更去风险的路线（我之前也写过 thesis，也同样喜欢）。

📝 推文原文：

There was interesting research published called “Democratization of Retail Trading”.

That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments.

and found:

1. “WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks.”

2. “Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases.”

Their conclusion?

“We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice.”

I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options).

I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

最近有一份很有意思的研究报告叫《散户交易的民主化》（Democratization of Retail Trading）。

它研究了对 1.6 百万条 $RDDT（Reddit）上 WallStreetBets（WSB）论坛的评论，结论是：

1. “WSB 在识别表现最好的股票这件事上，几乎跑赢所有投行。”

2. “他们的平均回报能跟最顶尖的投行掰手腕，在某些情况下甚至跑赢他们。”

作者的结论？

“我们认为 WSB 确实可能成为一个免费可得、有价值的投资建议来源。”

我个人也觉得 WSB 确实在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些名字上很早布局，但在择时（尤其是期权）上经常错得很离谱。

真正藏 alpha 的地方，我认为现在是 X。

📝 推文原文：

Why do I keep getting these questions!!!

$XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations.

It takes time… Like October 2026, should finish up development.

Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they’ve been working on it since 2023.

Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth.

So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes.

I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized.

Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

为什么我总是被问到这些问题！！！

$XFAB 正在打造 $TSEM 与 $GFS 之外的硅光子代工方案，背后有欧洲 + $NVDA 评估背书。

这需要时间……比如 2026 年 10 月应该能完成开发。

接着 2027 年进入产能爬坡，2028 年量产——他们从 2023 年就开始做了。

大家现在还把它当作一个低迷的车规芯片代工厂。幸好欧洲投资者更看 TTM 收入而非远期增长。

所以一个市值仅约 €11 亿的公司，居然在领跑欧洲打造 $TSEM 同级硅光子代工与供应链？ASE 的研发总监们已经在引用它，作为未来 CPO 路径之一。

我可能确实站在很多事情的早期，但风险收益比的本质就是要敢于相信它能商业化。

想要降低风险的话，也可以直接走 Tower（$TSEM）那条路——我之前也写过它的 thesis，同样看好。

📝 推文原文：

Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier.

You can find it in SpaceX US import logs.

It’s fun information discovery ahead of Space’x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails.

Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM!

Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo…

Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.

只是觉得这点挺有意思：$LPK 是个未被发现的 SpaceX 供应商。

你能在 SpaceX 的美国进口报关记录里找到它。

在 SpaceX 本周 IPO 前，这算是有意思的信息差发现。不过我也不太清楚具体合同细节是什么。

披露：我持有 LPK 仓位，NFA，感谢我的关注者 Albert_TheVoid 给我发的 DM！

尤其是现在大家都在用 Velo 聊 SpaceX……

如果你想再深挖的话，这就是 $LPK 与 SpaceX 之间一个全新的直接关系。

📝 推文原文：

I like $SIVE

我喜欢 $SIVE

📝 推文原文：

Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout.

Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure?

哎哟……路透社一份新报告显示，中国对 InP 的主导地位正在威胁 AI 数据中心的建设。

谁又能想到 $AXTI 居然是个重大单点故障点呢？

📝 推文原文：

My own portfolio performance this week has been disappointing.

YTD only up +3,612.10%.

I share when I profit but I also have huge drawdowns!

Like Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI, and other CPO names.

If Alpha is strong enough, regardless of macro, these stocks should continue to go up…

So it’s a learning process for me too, fine-tuning my own thinking and how the market is pricing different themes/parts of the supply chain.

I’m just sharing as I go!

这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。

今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。

我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！

比如 Foci/Shunsin $SOI、$AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。

如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对……

所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。

我只是边走边分享而已！

📝 推文原文：

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work.

Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts.

There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE.

And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table.

Happened last year with $NBIS.

I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. institutions bought up majority of the float bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs.

Two years before it was $RKLB

Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up now it’s ATHs

I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX.

So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity.

Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently.

Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise.

Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work.

They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

简单说……这就是周期如何运作的。

散户抢先布局，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一个架构转型。

$SIVE 的美国机构持仓曾经接近零。

现在你看到 JP Morgan、Fidelity Research 等主动机构都出现在股东名单上了。

去年 $NBIS 也是这样：

我指出机构持仓不到 30%，并说他们想要更多筹码。 机构买走了大部分流通盘。 当时一堆负面文章，现在是正面报道和历史新高。

两年前的 $RKLB 也一样：

我 16 美元做多，但机构分析师给出历史最低目标价，告诉散户卖出，尽管它有很高的火箭复用率。 散户卖了，机构吸筹。 现在是历史新高。

我预期 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有机构建议你以 25 亿美元估值卖出它和 $HIMX。

所以如果你看到卖方负面报告或一波莫名其妙的利空新闻，这是个好信号——他们需要流动性。

最近一些小对冲基金甚至用 X 上的机器人农场告诉散户卖出……而这被我发现。

无论如何，这也是为什么我花大量时间做个股研究，让大家在面对噪音时能建立自己的信念。

很不幸，这就是现代美国散户→机构之间流动性转移周期的常态。

它们不以散户投资者的利益为出发点。

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you weren’t aware…

The broader index is down a significant -3-4%.

Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK.

And are largely affected by wider selloffs.

Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only?

以防你没有注意到……

大盘指数已经显著下跌了 -3% 到 -4%。

股票不会一路直线上涨，除非你是 $SNDK。

个股也会很大程度受到更广泛抛售的影响。

好奇我的粉丝组合现在是什么样：如果这周只做多，你们还是绿色的吗？

📝 推文原文：

Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK.

Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks.

Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things

我仍然持有我的 $AXTI，也持有其他我没怎么提到的标的，比如 $ALRIB 或 $LPK。

不过 AXT 的逻辑并不一样，其中一部分是担心稀释，因此有新的流通盘结构风险。

另一部分是不想因为讨论某些事情而引发更多出口管制。

📝 推文原文：

I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well.

Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.

我预期 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 以及欧洲供应链里的其他公司也会跟随领涨、继续修复。

最近光子学 / 电源半导体一起被抛售了。

📝 推文原文：

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should.

The initial selloff was just stupid.

很高兴看到从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 再到 $SIVE 的光学标的正在小幅修复，这才是它们本该有的表现。

最初那波抛售纯属愚蠢。

📝 推文原文：

That’s correct with $SIVE and Blackrock after MSCI/nasdaq. Blackrock is passive and tracks sivers based on MC.

Fidelity Research is their active investment arm, so that’s not passive.

关于 $SIVE 和 BlackRock 的判断是对的，MSCI/Nasdaq 之后，BlackRock 是被动跟踪市值配置 Sivers。

Fidelity Research 则是他们的主动投资部门，所以那不是被动配置。

📝 推文原文：

Bro everything has technical obstacles. I can bear post about HBM4 yields or glass substrate yields and basically everything too.

$NVDA is a $5T company, they’re not $ASTS.

I’m sure they know timelines and difficulties, so projections should be accurate.

兄弟，任何事情都有技术障碍。我也可以发关于 HBM4 良率、玻璃基板良率之类的帖子，基本上什么都能挑毛病。

$NVDA 是一家 5 万亿美元公司，不是 $ASTS。

我相信他们清楚自己的时间线和难点，所以产业端的预期应该是准确的。

📝 推文原文：

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

是的，BlackRock 现在已经在指数纳入后以被动持有人身份进入 $SIVE 持仓。Fidelity Research 也开始直接持有 Sivers。还记得上个月 JP Morgan 先出现小仓位吗……随后买到了公司约 5.25%？这看起来像是美国机构验证了 Sivers 在光子学中的位置，并正在尝试积累仓位。

📝 推文原文：

If you want a TLDR of today: > be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO > analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! > market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” > Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???

如果要总结今天：作为 $NVDA，一个 5 万亿美元公司，推动转向 800V DC 和 CPO；分析师说：“我不觉得你能按时做到！”市场说：“我不相信 Nvidia，卖掉一切。”随后 Nvidia 和 Lumentum 高管都表示：看多 CPO，时间线正在加速。？？？

📝 推文原文：

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.

$LITE 管理层在今天瑞穗科技会议上的发言：公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 CPO scale-up 光学产品，并在 2028 年正式爬坡。没有延迟，因为这与此前分享的时间线一致。所以今天我们也得到了 $NVDA 高级副总裁确认：CPO scale-out 时间线 2026H2 没有延迟，并且正在开始量产。$LITE 管理层也表示 CPO scale-up 时间线没有延迟。Nvidia 和 Lumentum 这些领先公司，大概率比那些错误分析师报告更清楚自己的时间线。两家公司都对 TAM 和机会极度看多。

📝 推文原文：

$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays: “the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.” There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule. CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026. This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex. Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.” Both near term and long term. Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.

$NVDA 网络业务高级副总裁反驳近期关于延迟的分析师报告：“最令人兴奋的是 co-packaged optics（CPO，共封装光学）。”H2 CPO 产品交付节奏没有延迟，CPO 交换机将按计划在 2026 年下半年进入量产并开始向客户爬坡交付。原始采访来源应归功于 Tae Kim / Computex。另一个有趣细节是：“Gilad 对 Nvidia 的 CPO 爬坡非常热情。”无论短期还是长期。我对 CPO 以及 Nvidia 相关链条都极度看多。

📝 推文原文：

CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA. CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028”. SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.

CPO scale-out 比预期更早：富士康预计单量登记上修，并已提前向 $NVDA 交付光交换机。$LITE 在今天的瑞穗科技会议上给出的 CPO scale-up 时间线是：“公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 Scale-Up 光学产品，2028 年正式放量爬坡。”$NVDA 网络业务高级副总裁也表示：“我们会在今年下半年开始 CPO 爬坡。”没有延迟迹象。我选择相信产业界预测：它们都重申 scale-out CPO 从 H2 起时间线更快，scale-up CPO 从 2027H2 起推进（主要增长在 2028）。相比之下，某家动机可疑的分析机构曾称 $MU 没有 HBM4 Rubin 份额并引发抛售，但 Micron 随后很快宣布进入量产，之后带来三位数回报。我认为基于这份错误报告去做多临时桥接架构的人不会太开心。不过感谢这个买入机会。

📝 推文原文：

I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today?

我不太认为从 $AAOI 到 $LITE 或 $SIVE 的光子学标的会很快消失……只是波动极端剧烈。顺便问问，大家今天还在买什么？

📝 推文原文：

$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade. Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM. Was such a goated call? (~383% return) Had way too many great ideas this year… Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration.

$EWY 从 32% 隐含波动率扩张到 58% 的交易。底层 SK Hynix / Samsung 上涨后期权大幅实值。这个判断是不是太强了？（约 383% 回报）今年好点子太多了……我仍然非常自豪于提前预测韩国指数会因为记忆体集中度而出现波动率上升。

📝 推文原文：

Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR. Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.

比如：$ASX、住友电工、$JBL、$VICR、$GFS、$AAOI、AlChip、$TSEM、$FN、古河电工、$CLS、$NBIS、$NOK、$AMKR、$LITE、$COHR。临时想到这些。基本上就是市值在 $100亿-$1000亿区间的 AI 暴露标的。相比指数，或已经上涨很多的 $ARM 到 $MRVL，这些现在可能有更有吸引力的 ROI？（披露：上述名单中我只对 NBIS/TSEM/AAOI 有财务利益）我提很多小一点的想法，是为了追求超额回报。感觉其中许多仍有上涨空间。

📝 推文原文：

A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (ALL.SPACE). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their ALL.SPACE acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers… This win aside, I’m expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers).

今天 $SIVE 来了一个重大催化剂：Sivers 宣布获得 $820万 ALL.SPACE 太空应用批量订单。这是用于 LEO/多轨道卫星通信的波束赋形 IC。更大的意义不在于合同规模，而在于 Sivers 通过 ALL.SPACE 收购进入了更大的防务主承包商体系（类似 $MRVL 与 Celestial 的设计合作）。这类合作通常会带来更多后续订单和批量合同。事实证明 Sivers 在 AI 数据中心光子学激光器之上，还是太空/国防供应链的瓶颈（赶在 SpaceX IPO 之前）。除此之外，我预计光子学方面（Jabil 和其他可插拔光模块厂商）也很快会有更多量产爬坡。

📝 推文原文：

Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rerating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought).

随便想了一下：$JBL 在 $380亿市值看起来是很有吸引力的长线标的。我觉得市场还没有给他们的 1.6T LRO 可插拔光模块业务定价。尤其是如果 $SIVE 是 2027H1 的瓶颈，“你能造多少”才是关键。他们已经有庞大的供应链体系……还接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。如果你有 $SIVE 激光器 + Win Semi 等多家代工厂量产激光器 + $JBL 做其余部分，这比 $AAOI 不断 ATM 融资建激光晶圆厂更具可扩展性。相当于免费获得一个旭创式的业务模式（还带美国溢价），供应链已经被超大规模客户验证。可能 2027H1 大家才会意识到。40% 重估似乎合理？（不持有任何仓位，纯思考）。

📝 推文原文（摘要）：

Re-sharing my “goated” list of 30 US-available stocks with brief explanations. These are not short-term trades — most are 3-5 year conviction plays across AI supply chain, space, fintech, and energy.

再次分享我精心挑选的30只美股清单及简要说明。这些不是短线交易——大多数是跨越AI供应链、太空、金融科技和能源的3-5年信念投资。

📝 推文原文（长推文摘要）：

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It’s inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don’t know yet. A lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it’s right or not down the line. Not big on sum-of-the-parts DCF models. Just figuring out what people might want/need, then what happens when the demand hits.

我觉得我的投资风格有点不同，只是一些反思：本质上是主观判断，基于市场还不知道的信息。很大程度上是对非结构化关系的猜测，然后看后续是否被验证。不太喜欢DCF模型。就是搞清楚人们可能想要/需要什么，然后看需求到来时会发生什么。

On toxic financing: “If they’re legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it’s a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures.”

关于有毒融资： “如果它们确实是一家好公司，那等现有股东被稀释到极致后再做多可能是个好主意。但如果你在意股权增值，最好远离有毒融资结构。”

Red flags listed: $IREN ($6B ATM, 无限稀释), $SLNH ($500M ATM on $250M MC), $BKKT (稀释用于高管薪酬), $SNAP (隐藏的股权激励)

📝 推文原文（核心摘要）：

Glass substrate is NOT a concept play — it’s a confirmed capacity supercycle for 2026-2028. Ramping faster than SEMI forecasts. H2 2026 mass production starts. High growth in H1 2027. Core players: SKC/Absolics (first to MP for AMD), Samsung EM (2027 H2 for Apple/Broadcom), TSMC CoPoS (2-3 years out). Equipment “shovel seller”: LPKF.

玻璃基板不是概念炒作——这是2026-2028年确定的产能超级周期。起量比SEMI预测更快。2026下半年开始量产，2027上半年高增长。核心玩家：SKC/Absolics（首个量产，供AMD）、三星电机（2027H2，供苹果/博通）、台积电CoPoS（还需2-3年）。设备卖铲人：LPKF。

📝 推文原文：

I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. JP Morgan increased ownership from 0.4% to 5%+ in ONE month. They get it.

我一直告诉散户和瑞典对冲基金 $SIVE 对 CPO 有多重要，但没人听。摩根大通在一个月内从0.4%增持到5%+。他们懂了。