白发股神：2026年6月推文归档 4

📝 推文原文：

How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML? Is the real question.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 抛出尖锐问题——中国如何将校车大小的 $ASML 光刻机走私入境？这触及了半导体设备出口管制与国产替代的核心矛盾。

📝 推文原文：

How does China manage to smuggle in something the size of a school bus from $ASML?

Is the real question.

中文提炼：Serenity 抛出尖锐问题——中国如何将校车大小的 $ASML 光刻机走私入境？这触及了半导体设备出口管制与国产替代的核心矛盾。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 继续以 $ACMR 为例解释其 NAV 折扣+AI 增长选股框架：$ACMR 持有约 $18.2B 的 ACMR China 资产，但仅以 $7.3B 市值交易。她不认为可以完全清算这些资产，这也是折价持续的原因。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@Egbariaj I’m just finding new ideas. As for $ACMR up to you. It’s just my example on what I’m trying to look for, since it’s has around ~$18.2B worth of assets from ACMR China. And it’s currently trades at a $7.3B MC.

I don’t think they can fully liquidate it, which is why it trades

中文提炼：Serenity 继续以 $ACMR 为例解释其 NAV 折扣+AI 增长选股框架：$ACMR 持有约 $18.2B 的 ACMR China 资产，但仅以 $7.3B 市值交易。她不认为可以完全清算这些资产，这也是折价持续的原因。

📝 推文原文：

Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth? Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square. Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities. Seems to be getting noticed recently

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 公开向社区征集同时具备大 NAV 折价和独立 AI 增长能力的标的，以 $ACMR 和 WUS 为例，比 SK Square 折价更极端。她已有前述敞口，想寻找更多机会，认为这个主题正在被市场关注。

📝 推文原文：

Anyone got a list or ideas of the biggest NAV discounts. But independently has AI growth?

Stuff more extreme end like $ACMR and WUS (2316) compared to SK Square.

Have exposure to the ones above, just wanted to research more opportunities.

Seems to be getting noticed recently

中文提炼：Serenity 公开向社区征集同时具备大 NAV 折价和独立 AI 增长能力的标的，以 $ACMR 和 WUS 为例，比 SK Square 折价更极端。她已有前述敞口，想寻找更多机会，认为这个主题正在被市场关注。

📝 推文原文：

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 在回复中明确表示 $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是她认为最可能获得 $AMD 大额 CW laser 采购协议的两家公司。依据包括 AAOI+AMD analyst channel checks，以及 AMD+GFS/Sivers 参考激光器的技术联系。

📝 推文原文（回复）：

@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We’ll see what happens.

given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.

中文提炼：Serenity 在回复中明确表示 $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是她认为最可能获得 $AMD 大额 CW laser 采购协议的两家公司。依据包括 AAOI+AMD analyst channel checks，以及 AMD+GFS/Sivers 参考激光器的技术联系。

📝 推文原文：

Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel’s marketing team at this point. Feel’s like he’s hard carrying the stock.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 特朗普宣布 Intel 与 Apple 达成合作，$INTC 当日上涨 8%。Intel 高管对 Trump 官宣 $AAPL 合作感到意外。Serenity 调侃特朗普应该领导 Intel 的市场营销团队。

📝 推文原文：

Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today.

Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump.

TBH, the President should lead Intel’s marketing team at this point.

Feel’s like he’s hard carrying the stock.

中文提炼：特朗普宣布 Intel 与 Apple 达成合作，$INTC 当日上涨 8%。Intel 高管对 Trump 官宣 $AAPL 合作感到意外。Serenity 调侃特朗普应该领导 Intel 的市场营销团队。

📝 推文原文：

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago… Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%)

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 提醒市场：3个月前 X 上 99% 的人看空存储，此后 $MU 从 $380 涨至 $1122（+195%）、$SNDK 从 $565 涨至 $2155（+281%）、$EWY 从 $132 涨至 $219（+66%），SK Hynix +215%、Samsung +110%。

📝 推文原文：

Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago…

Since then:

$MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%)

中文提炼：Serenity 提醒市场：3个月前 X 上 99% 的人看空存储，此后 $MU 从 $380 涨至 $1122（+195%）、$SNDK 从 $565 涨至 $2155（+281%）、$EWY 从 $132 涨至 $219（+66%），SK Hynix +215%、Samsung +110%。

📝 推文原文：

非常感谢

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 继续把 $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR 放在同一条激光/光引擎/光互联链条里，强调厂商不应只卖激光器，而应向完整光模块、光引擎和 ELS 组件延伸。

📝 推文原文：

非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！

总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。

又或者像 $COHR

中文提炼：Serenity 继续把 $AAOI / $SIVE / $COHR 放在同一条激光/光引擎/光互联链条里，强调厂商不应只卖激光器，而应向完整光模块、光引擎和 ELS 组件延伸。

📝 推文原文：

$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today. -2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US.

• They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： $ALRIB 年会纪要显示 ROSIE 系统将交付美国领先量子计算客户，同时加速 BTO/STO 光子器件相关 BD，体现光子材料/量子供应链的延伸。

📝 推文原文：

$ALRIB general meeting notes came out today.

-2nd ROSIE System expected to be delivered shortly to a leading quantum computing player” in the US.

• They’re also intensifying BD for their products used for BTO/STO on photonics and recorded strong interest.

中文提炼：$ALRIB 年会纪要显示 ROSIE 系统将交付美国领先量子计算客户，同时加速 BTO/STO 光子器件相关 BD，体现光子材料/量子供应链的延伸。

📝 推文原文：

I agree with Palliser Capital here. As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC. While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company… Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something?

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认同 Palliser 对 WUS 资产价值被低估的看法，认为 WUS 持有的 WUS Kunshan 股权具备明显估值解锁空间。

📝 推文原文：

I agree with Palliser Capital here.

As a shareholder, it’s just so stupid how WUS (2316 TW) MC can be ~$1B MC.

While they own a 11.26% stake of WUS Kunshan, a $39.3B (¥282B CNY) company…

Which is worth $4.42B pre-tax. Just sell 1/4th or something?

中文提炼：Serenity 认同 Palliser 对 WUS 资产价值被低估的看法，认为 WUS 持有的 WUS Kunshan 股权具备明显估值解锁空间。

📝 推文原文：

Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 提到 Jim Cramer 公开背书 $SPCX。该帖更偏市场情绪/反指梗，不是新的产业链订单。

📝 推文原文：

Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing.

中文提炼：Serenity 提到 Jim Cramer 公开背书 $SPCX。该帖更偏市场情绪/反指梗，不是新的产业链订单。

📝 推文原文：

$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30’s, good times.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： $AEHR 获得主要 Silicon Photonics 客户的 wafer-level burn-in 系统追加量产订单，当日上涨 11.29% 至 116 美元；两个月前仍在 30 美元区间。

📝 推文原文：

$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems.

Now up 11.29% today to $116.

Only 2 months ago it was in the $30’s, good times.

中文提炼：$AEHR 获得主要 Silicon Photonics 客户的 wafer-level burn-in 系统追加量产订单，当日上涨 11.29% 至 116 美元；两个月前仍在 30 美元区间。

📝 推文原文：

@Raccoononomics $JBL would be my pick if I had to choose one.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 如果只能在相关数据中心制造/供应链标的中选择一个，Serenity 会选 $JBL。

📝 推文原文：

@Raccoononomics $JBL would be my pick if I had to choose one.

中文提炼：如果只能在相关数据中心制造/供应链标的中选择一个，Serenity 会选 $JBL。

📝 推文原文：

And 7 months later… $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate?

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 7 个月后 $NBIS 创历史新高，而 $IREN 投资者仍在承受 60 亿美元 ATM 融资稀释、股价停留在去年 11 月水平。Serenity 用二者对比强调融资结构差异。

📝 推文原文：

And 7 months later… $NBIS is all time highs.

While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November.

Guess this settles the debate?

中文提炼：7 个月后 $NBIS 创历史新高，而 $IREN 投资者仍在承受 60 亿美元 ATM 融资稀释、股价停留在去年 11 月水平。Serenity 用二者对比强调融资结构差异。

📝 推文原文：

With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 回头看，$XLU 公用事业方向是极好的想法，核心 thesis 是 AI 带来的极端电力需求、capex 上行以及降息。

📝 推文原文：

With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts.

中文提炼：回头看，$XLU 公用事业方向是极好的想法，核心 thesis 是 AI 带来的极端电力需求、capex 上行以及降息。

📝 推文原文：

Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon…

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为 $XFAB 没有新消息，但公司需要更好地向市场解释自身与 optical AI data center、power semiconductor 相邻的敞口；她认为市场并未充分理解其欧洲 silicon 相关定位。

📝 推文原文：

Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB.

Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though.

Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently.

However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon…

中文提炼：Serenity 认为 $XFAB 没有新消息，但公司需要更好地向市场解释自身与 optical AI data center、power semiconductor 相邻的敞口；她认为市场并未充分理解其欧洲 silicon 相关定位。

📝 推文原文：

@ChenHW8899 I would personally long LeaderDrive (688017) if I were in China! Still really early on into robotics ramp, but I think they’ll be a clear winner given China’s lead in low cost, mass production robotics.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 如果我在中国，我个人会做多 LeaderDrive（绿的谐波，688017）。机器人 ramp 仍处在非常早期，但考虑到中国在低成本、大规模量产机器人方面的领先，我认为它们会是清晰赢家。

📝 推文原文：

@ChenHW8899 I would personally long LeaderDrive (688017) if I were in China!

Still really early on into robotics ramp, but I think they’ll be a clear winner given China’s lead in low cost, mass production robotics.

中文翻译：如果我在中国，我个人会做多 LeaderDrive（绿的谐波，688017）。机器人 ramp 仍处在非常早期，但考虑到中国在低成本、大规模量产机器人方面的领先，我认为它们会是清晰赢家。

📝 推文原文：

I mean… if i had to guess, $LPK did claim “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027

🇨🇳 中文翻译： 如果猜测的话，$LPK 曾声称“主要全球玩家中 80% 的客户已选择 LPKF 设备”。玻璃基板显然是下一轮封装迁移方向；从预计时间表看，Absolics 等主要玩家将在 2026 年下半年 ramp，Samsung Electro-Mechanics 在 2027 年 ramp。

📝 推文原文：

I mean… if i had to guess, $LPK did claim “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”.

Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift!

From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027

中文翻译：如果猜测的话，$LPK 曾声称“主要全球玩家中 80% 的客户已选择 LPKF 设备”。玻璃基板显然是下一轮封装迁移方向；从预计时间表看，Absolics 等主要玩家将在 2026 年下半年 ramp，Samsung Electro-Mechanics 在 2027 年 ramp。

📝 推文原文：

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders… Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There’s not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： TrendForce 报道称 $AMD 正通过多笔重大采购订单积极锁定 CW laser 供给。Serenity 认为这可能只是瓶颈的开始；西方供应链里剩余的独立产能已经不多，除了 $SIVE、$AAOI，也许还有 Macom。

📝 推文原文：

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders…

Is probably just the start of the bottleneck?

There’s not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.

中文翻译：TrendForce 报道称 $AMD 正通过多笔重大采购订单积极锁定 CW laser 供给。Serenity 认为这可能只是瓶颈的开始；西方供应链里剩余的独立产能已经不多，除了 $SIVE、$AAOI，也许还有 Macom。

📝 推文原文：

Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 批评 Bernstein 对 Kioxia 给出 50% 下跌判断，并回顾其 1 月给 $INTC 36 美元目标价、而 Intel 现在已到 118 美元。她认为这是一个教训：面向散户发布的机构报告不应被机械接受，它们并不是为了帮助散户投资者。

📝 推文原文：

Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia.

They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118.

Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption.

They’re not here to help retail investors.

中文翻译：Serenity 批评 Bernstein 对 Kioxia 给出 50% 下跌判断，并回顾其 1 月给 $INTC 36 美元目标价、而 Intel 现在已到 118 美元。她认为这是一个教训：面向散户发布的机构报告不应被机械接受，它们并不是为了帮助散户投资者。

📝 推文原文：

@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为 $AEHR 近期并无太多新增消息，也不像 $AAOI 那样被高频争论；当前更多只是少数人认为 AEHR 会回到 $25 的单票情绪评论。

📝 推文原文：

@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR.

Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.

中文提炼：Serenity 认为 $AEHR 近期并无太多新增消息，也不像 $AAOI 那样被高频争论；当前更多只是少数人认为 AEHR 会回到 $25 的单票情绪评论。

📝 推文原文：

I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While https://t.co/vzv1irut8F

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 继续高信念看多 $AAOI，认为从 $30 到 $170 的上涨过程中空头一直误判；核心理由是 $AAOI 拥有 AMD 与其他 hyperscaler 正在寻找的稀缺 laser capacity。

📝 推文原文：

I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long…

Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).

They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.

While https://t.co/vzv1irut8F

中文提炼：Serenity 继续高信念看多 $AAOI，认为从 $30 到 $170 的上涨过程中空头一直误判；核心理由是 $AAOI 拥有 AMD 与其他 hyperscaler 正在寻找的稀缺 laser capacity。

📝 推文原文：

Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp.
Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain “unproven” in short distance in rack + chip to https://t.co/6tbqAILSFF https://t.co/WKUUtQpUV4

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Mizuho Research 认为 CPO 与 800V DC 没有延迟，并因 $NVDA 需求 ramp 上修 optical engine 预测；长期 CPO 下一阶段仍聚焦 InP DFB lasers（Serenity 点名 $SIVE），VCSEL 与 microLED 在机架内/芯片间短距应用仍未被验证。

📝 推文原文：

Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc.

Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp.

Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain “unproven” in short distance in rack + chip to https://t.co/6tbqAILSFF https://t.co/WKUUtQpUV4

中文提炼：Mizuho Research 认为 CPO 与 800V DC 没有延迟，并因 $NVDA 需求 ramp 上修 optical engine 预测；长期 CPO 下一阶段仍聚焦 InP DFB lasers（Serenity 点名 $SIVE），VCSEL 与 microLED 在机架内/芯片间短距应用仍未被验证。

📝 推文原文：

@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That’s called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 表示她提前建模 $MU 毛利率并在数月前准确判断，这就是在财报前定价；之后 DRAM/NAND 又继续涨价。

📝 推文原文：

@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely.

I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before.

That’s called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.

中文提炼：Serenity 表示她提前建模 $MU 毛利率并在数月前准确判断，这就是在财报前定价；之后 DRAM/NAND 又继续涨价。

📝 推文原文：

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can’t be measured https://t.co/OmC8yjtXC9

🇨🇳 中文翻译： Serenity 认为 AI 可能是人类史上最具破坏性的技术，级别接近农业革命或工业革命；Anthropic、OpenAI、xAI 等都在竞逐超级智能，其经济影响难以衡量。

📝 推文原文：

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can’t be measured https://t.co/OmC8yjtXC9

中文提炼：Serenity 认为 AI 可能是人类史上最具破坏性的技术，级别接近农业革命或工业革命；Anthropic、OpenAI、xAI 等都在竞逐超级智能，其经济影响难以衡量。

📝 推文原文：

@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.

🇨🇳 中文翻译： $SPCX 市值升至 $2.5T 并收购 Cursor，AI 工具数据/网络效应与商业航天叙事合流。涉及赛道：商业航天/AI基础设施。涉及标的：$SPCX, $NBIS。

📝 推文原文：

@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle.

Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.

中文提炼：$SPCX 市值升至 $2.5T 并收购 Cursor，AI 工具数据/网络效应与商业航天叙事合流。涉及赛道：商业航天/AI基础设施。涉及标的：$SPCX, $NBIS。