白发股神：2026年6月推文归档 7

📝 推文原文：

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100!

Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies…

Into the largest ones on Nasdaq

哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 都被纳入 Nasdaq 100 了！

看着 Astera、Rocket Lab 和 Weebius 从小公司一路长大…

进入 Nasdaq 最大的那批公司行列

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… 只是提醒一下：如果你在想为什么指数和像 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这样的名字现在都在涨。 因为特朗普刚刚取消了对伊朗的打击。 这个市场真的太波动了……

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now.

Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran.

This market is so volatile…

只是提醒一下：如果你在想为什么指数和像 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这样的名字现在都在涨。

因为特朗普刚刚取消了对伊朗的打击。

这个市场真的太波动了……

📝 推文原文：

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector. Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet). As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases. “The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers” per The Information. Anthropic 的新消息看起来会给 Neocloud / colo 赛道带来顺风。 比如 $WULF、$CIFR、$WYFI、$HUT 以及其他还没点名的公司。 因为 Anthropic 正在推进它的首批数据中心租赁。 据 The Information 报道，这家 AI 公司已经和美国开发商签了十几份意向书。

📝 推文原文：

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector.

Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet).

As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases.

“The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers” per The Information.

Anthropic 的新消息看起来会给 Neocloud / colo 赛道带来顺风。

比如 $WULF、$CIFR、$WYFI、$HUT 以及其他还没点名的公司。

因为 Anthropic 正在推进它的首批数据中心租赁。

据 The Information 报道，这家 AI 公司已经和美国开发商签了十几份意向书。

📝 推文原文：

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently. It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains. Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply. People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties. But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields. Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity. It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible. Also I believe in Jensen. 如果你注意到我最近的其他主题，也包括 800V DC 和 CPO。 本质上是在投资 $NVDA，这家美国 AI 国家队，并帮助它们把供应链补强。 很多技术难点都卡在良率和衬底供应上。 你总能看到有人因为激光产能、出口管制瓶颈等问题，就去做空 Nvidia 的供应链。 但如果去投资那些关键公司，让它们有更多 capex 去做 FAU 产能 / 良率提升。 或者去支持上游红磷 / InP 衬底，或 SiC / GaN 产能。 这会让原本技术上很难的事情，变成可能。 而且我信 Jensen。

📝 推文原文：

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently.

It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains.

Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply.

People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties.

But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields.

Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity.

It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible.

Also I believe in Jensen.

如果你注意到我最近的其他主题，也包括 800V DC 和 CPO。

本质上是在投资 $NVDA，这家美国 AI 国家队，并帮助它们把供应链补强。

很多技术难点都卡在良率和衬底供应上。

你总能看到有人因为激光产能、出口管制瓶颈等问题，就去做空 Nvidia 的供应链。

但如果去投资那些关键公司，让它们有更多 capex 去做 FAU 产能 / 良率提升。

或者去支持上游红磷 / InP 衬底，或 SiC / GaN 产能。

这会让原本技术上很难的事情，变成可能。

而且我信 Jensen。

📝 推文原文：

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it’s ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand… With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others… If you haven’t noticed by now, they’re all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it’s very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it’s good to change mindsets a bit so we don’t see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don’t just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone. 市场应该支持像 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军。 因为支持美国本土的关键 AI 基建，从激光制造到生产，是更合理的，而不是做空它们。 现在很多人把收发器都外包到亚洲，比如马来西亚或泰国…… 但 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 等等，都是美国供应链的关键节点。 如果你注意到，现在这些公司也都在拿补贴，以强化西方供应链。 以前的交易思路是：做空正在成长中的美股 / 西方股，再用拿补贴的海外公司对冲。 就像当年能源 / 太阳能公司破产那样，这种思路后来在美国 AI 基建和电网上反噬得很厉害。 我想改变这种心态，因为我相信，现在去建设关键的西方供应链，比如光子学，是正和的。 尤其如果 $AAOI 在把生产迁回美国之后，真的能做到每月 4.71 亿美元收入。 与其希望它们失败、把供应链关键节点叫成 meme stock / 泡沫，不如换个思路，否则美国太阳能行业的教训可能会再来一次。 美欧也不是随便就给任何公司发补贴或 CHIPS 资金的。

📝 推文原文：

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI.

Since it’s ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.

Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand…

With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others…

If you haven’t noticed by now, they’re all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains.

Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones.

As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid.

I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it’s very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today.

Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America.

Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it’s good to change mindsets a bit so we don’t see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later.

US/EU don’t just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.

市场应该支持像 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军。

因为支持美国本土的关键 AI 基建，从激光制造到生产，是更合理的，而不是做空它们。

现在很多人把收发器都外包到亚洲，比如马来西亚或泰国……

但 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 等等，都是美国供应链的关键节点。

如果你注意到，现在这些公司也都在拿补贴，以强化西方供应链。

以前的交易思路是：做空正在成长中的美股 / 西方股，再用拿补贴的海外公司对冲。

就像当年能源 / 太阳能公司破产那样，这种思路后来在美国 AI 基建和电网上反噬得很厉害。

我想改变这种心态，因为我相信，现在去建设关键的西方供应链，比如光子学，是正和的。

尤其如果 $AAOI 在把生产迁回美国之后，真的能做到每月 4.71 亿美元收入。

与其希望它们失败、把供应链关键节点叫成 meme stock / 泡沫，不如换个思路，否则美国太阳能行业的教训可能会再来一次。

美欧也不是随便就给任何公司发补贴或 CHIPS 资金的。

📝 推文原文：

At this point I can’t tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro. Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion. And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX… Anyone know? 现在我也分不清，$META 到 $MSFT 的回调到底是不是宏观导致。 还是 $SPCX 加上指数纳入，带来的流动性抽走。 机构是不是在提前交易纳指 100 以及围绕 SpaceX 的再平衡…… 有人知道吗？

📝 推文原文：

At this point I can’t tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro.

Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion.

And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX…

Anyone know?

现在我也分不清，$META 到 $MSFT 的回调到底是不是宏观导致。

还是 $SPCX 加上指数纳入，带来的流动性抽走。

机构是不是在提前交易纳指 100 以及围绕 SpaceX 的再平衡……

有人知道吗？

📝 推文原文：

that’s literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile. 这件事字面上就是你自己来判断。 如果你认为它们能在 2027 年上半年末做到月营收 4.71 亿美元，那么我觉得以 $AAOI 13.4B 的市值来看，潜力还是挺高的。 光学名字波动一直都很大。

📝 推文原文：

that’s literally for you to decide.

If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B.

optical names are very volatile.

这件事字面上就是你自己来判断。

如果你认为它们能在 2027 年上半年末做到月营收 4.71 亿美元，那么我觉得以 $AAOI 13.4B 的市值来看，潜力还是挺高的。

光学名字波动一直都很大。

📝 推文原文：

not sure, we’ll see if it’s good or bad for overall markets since it might be a liquidity vacuum of people selling other assets for $SPCX! But we’ll find out soon! For the USD at least, it’s very positive. 不确定，看看这对整体市场是好是坏，因为这可能会形成一个流动性真空——大家为了买 $SPCX，先去卖别的资产！ 不过很快就知道了！至少对美元来说，这件事是非常正面的。

📝 推文原文：

not sure, we’ll see if it’s good or bad for overall markets since it might be a liquidity vacuum of people selling other assets for $SPCX!

But we’ll find out soon! For the USD at least, it’s very positive.

不确定，看看这对整体市场是好是坏，因为这可能会形成一个流动性真空——大家为了买 $SPCX，先去卖别的资产！

不过很快就知道了！至少对美元来说，这件事是非常正面的。

📝 推文原文：

Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say: 8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares. Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO… Don’t think there’s been any historical precedence like this yet? 哇，法兰克福银行的策略师说： 海外对 SpaceX（$SPCX）股票的需求，单日就可能再融资美国经常账户赤字的 8%。 围绕这次 Mega-IPO，市场会怎么反应，真的很让人期待…… 我不觉得历史上有过类似先例？

📝 推文原文：

Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say:

8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares.

Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO…

Don’t think there’s been any historical precedence like this yet?

哇，法兰克福银行的策略师说：

海外对 SpaceX（$SPCX）股票的需求，单日就可能再融资美国经常账户赤字的 8%。

围绕这次 Mega-IPO，市场会怎么反应，真的很让人期待……

我不觉得历史上有过类似先例？

📝 推文原文：

There was interesting research published called “Democratization of Retail Trading”. That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found:

1. “WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks.”
2. “Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases.” Their conclusion? “We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice.” I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays. 最近有一份很有意思的研究报告叫《散户交易的民主化》（Democratization of Retail Trading）。 它研究了对 1.6 百万条 $RDDT（Reddit）上 WallStreetBets（WSB）论坛的评论，结论是：
3. “WSB 在识别表现最好的股票这件事上，几乎跑赢所有投行。”
4. “他们的平均回报能跟最顶尖的投行掰手腕，在某些情况下甚至跑赢他们。” 作者的结论？ “我们认为 WSB 确实可能成为一个免费可得、有价值的投资建议来源。” 我个人也觉得 WSB 确实在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些名字上很早布局，但在择时（尤其是期权）上经常错得很离谱。 真正藏 alpha 的地方，我认为现在是 X。

📝 推文原文：

There was interesting research published called “Democratization of Retail Trading”.

That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments.

and found:

1. “WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks.”

2. “Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases.”

Their conclusion?

“We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice.”

I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options).

I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

最近有一份很有意思的研究报告叫《散户交易的民主化》（Democratization of Retail Trading）。

它研究了对 1.6 百万条 $RDDT（Reddit）上 WallStreetBets（WSB）论坛的评论，结论是：

1. “WSB 在识别表现最好的股票这件事上，几乎跑赢所有投行。”

2. “他们的平均回报能跟最顶尖的投行掰手腕，在某些情况下甚至跑赢他们。”

作者的结论？

“我们认为 WSB 确实可能成为一个免费可得、有价值的投资建议来源。”

我个人也觉得 WSB 确实在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些名字上很早布局，但在择时（尤其是期权）上经常错得很离谱。

真正藏 alpha 的地方，我认为现在是 X。

📝 推文原文：

Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time… Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they’ve been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like). 为什么老有人问这个！！！ $XFAB 正在做一条硅光子晶圆代工的替代路线，对标 $TSEM 和 $GFS，而且有欧洲资金/产业背书 + $NVDA 评估。 这需要时间……大概到 2026 年 10 月左右能完成开发。 然后 2027 年进入放量，2028 年再放大到量产，因为他们从 2023 年就开始做了。 现在很多人还以为它只是个低迷的汽车零部件供应商。好在欧洲公司通常看 TTM 收入而不是前瞻增长。 所以某种程度上，它在带头做欧洲版的 $TSEM 硅光子代工 + 供应链，市值大概 11 亿欧元？ ASE 的研发主管们也会引用它，把它看作未来 CPO 路线之一。 我可能确实对很多东西都太早了，但这类标的的大部分风险/回报，来自于你愿不愿意相信它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接走 Tower 这条更去风险的路线（我之前也写过 thesis，也同样喜欢）。

📝 推文原文：

Why do I keep getting these questions!!!

$XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations.

It takes time… Like October 2026, should finish up development.

Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they’ve been working on it since 2023.

Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth.

So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes.

I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized.

Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

为什么老有人问这个！！！

$XFAB 正在做一条硅光子晶圆代工的替代路线，对标 $TSEM 和 $GFS，而且有欧洲资金/产业背书 + $NVDA 评估。

这需要时间……大概到 2026 年 10 月左右能完成开发。

然后 2027 年进入放量，2028 年再放大到量产，因为他们从 2023 年就开始做了。

现在很多人还以为它只是个低迷的汽车零部件供应商。好在欧洲公司通常看 TTM 收入而不是前瞻增长。

所以某种程度上，它在带头做欧洲版的 $TSEM 硅光子代工 + 供应链，市值大概 11 亿欧元？ ASE 的研发主管们也会引用它，把它看作未来 CPO 路线之一。

我可能确实对很多东西都太早了，但这类标的的大部分风险/回报，来自于你愿不愿意相信它能商业化。

不然大家也可以直接走 Tower 这条更去风险的路线（我之前也写过 thesis，也同样喜欢）。

📝 推文原文：

Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier. You can find it in SpaceX US import logs. It’s fun information discovery ahead of Space’x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails. Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM! Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo… Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging. 只是觉得这点挺有意思：$LPK 是个未被发现的 SpaceX 供应商。 你能在 SpaceX 的美国进口报关记录里找到它。 在 SpaceX 本周 IPO 前，这算是有意思的信息差发现。不过我也不太清楚具体合同细节是什么。 披露：我持有 LPK 仓位，NFA，感谢我的关注者 Albert_TheVoid 给我发的 DM！ 尤其是现在大家都在用 Velo 聊 SpaceX…… 如果你想再深挖的话，这就是 $LPK 与 SpaceX 之间一个全新的直接关系。

📝 推文原文：

Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier.

You can find it in SpaceX US import logs.

It’s fun information discovery ahead of Space’x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails.

Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM!

Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo…

Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.

只是觉得这点挺有意思：$LPK 是个未被发现的 SpaceX 供应商。

你能在 SpaceX 的美国进口报关记录里找到它。

在 SpaceX 本周 IPO 前，这算是有意思的信息差发现。不过我也不太清楚具体合同细节是什么。

披露：我持有 LPK 仓位，NFA，感谢我的关注者 Albert_TheVoid 给我发的 DM！

尤其是现在大家都在用 Velo 聊 SpaceX……

如果你想再深挖的话，这就是 $LPK 与 SpaceX 之间一个全新的直接关系。

📝 推文原文：

I like $SIVE 我喜欢 $SIVE

📝 推文原文：

I like $SIVE

我喜欢 $SIVE

📝 推文原文：

Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout. Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure? 哎哟……路透社一份新报告显示，中国对 InP 的主导地位正在威胁 AI 数据中心的建设。 谁又能想到 $AXTI 居然是个重大单点故障点呢？

📝 推文原文：

Oh look… a new report by Reuters shows China’s control over InP threatens the AI DC buildout.

Who could have guessed $AXTI would have been a major point of failure?

哎哟……路透社一份新报告显示，中国对 InP 的主导地位正在威胁 AI 数据中心的建设。

谁又能想到 $AXTI 居然是个重大单点故障点呢？

📝 推文原文：

My own portfolio performance this week has been disappointing. YTD only up +3,612.10%. I share when I profit but I also have huge drawdowns! Like Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI, and other CPO names. If Alpha is strong enough, regardless of macro, these stocks should continue to go up… So it’s a learning process for me too, fine-tuning my own thinking and how the market is pricing different themes/parts of the supply chain. I’m just sharing as I go! 这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如 Foci/Shunsin $SOI、$AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对…… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！

📝 推文原文：

My own portfolio performance this week has been disappointing.

YTD only up +3,612.10%.

I share when I profit but I also have huge drawdowns!

Like Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI, and other CPO names.

If Alpha is strong enough, regardless of macro, these stocks should continue to go up…

So it’s a learning process for me too, fine-tuning my own thinking and how the market is pricing different themes/parts of the supply chain.

I’m just sharing as I go!

这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。

今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。

我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！

比如 Foci/Shunsin $SOI、$AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。

如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对……

所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。

我只是边走边分享而已！

📝 推文原文：

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS.

I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. institutions bought up majority of the float bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors. 简单说……这就是周期如何运作的。 散户抢先布局，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一个架构转型。 $SIVE 的美国机构持仓曾经接近零。 现在你看到 JP Morgan、Fidelity Research 等主动机构都出现在股东名单上了。 去年 $NBIS 也是这样： 我指出机构持仓不到 30%，并说他们想要更多筹码。 机构买走了大部分流通盘。 当时一堆负面文章，现在是正面报道和历史新高。 两年前的 $RKLB 也一样： 我 16 美元做多，但机构分析师给出历史最低目标价，告诉散户卖出，尽管它有很高的火箭复用率。 散户卖了，机构吸筹。 现在是历史新高。 我预期 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有机构建议你以 25 亿美元估值卖出它和 $HIMX。 所以如果你看到卖方负面报告或一波莫名其妙的利空新闻，这是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小对冲基金甚至用 X 上的机器人农场告诉散户卖出……而这被我发现。 无论如何，这也是为什么我花大量时间做个股研究，让大家在面对噪音时能建立自己的信念。 很不幸，这就是现代美国散户→机构之间流动性转移周期的常态。 它们不以散户投资者的利益为出发点。

📝 推文原文：

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work.

Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts.

There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE.

And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table.

Happened last year with $NBIS.

I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. institutions bought up majority of the float bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs.

Two years before it was $RKLB

Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up now it’s ATHs

I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX.

So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity.

Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently.

Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise.

Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work.

They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

简单说……这就是周期如何运作的。

散户抢先布局，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一个架构转型。

$SIVE 的美国机构持仓曾经接近零。

现在你看到 JP Morgan、Fidelity Research 等主动机构都出现在股东名单上了。

去年 $NBIS 也是这样：

我指出机构持仓不到 30%，并说他们想要更多筹码。 机构买走了大部分流通盘。 当时一堆负面文章，现在是正面报道和历史新高。

两年前的 $RKLB 也一样：

我 16 美元做多，但机构分析师给出历史最低目标价，告诉散户卖出，尽管它有很高的火箭复用率。 散户卖了，机构吸筹。 现在是历史新高。

我预期 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有机构建议你以 25 亿美元估值卖出它和 $HIMX。

所以如果你看到卖方负面报告或一波莫名其妙的利空新闻，这是个好信号——他们需要流动性。

最近一些小对冲基金甚至用 X 上的机器人农场告诉散户卖出……而这被我发现。

无论如何，这也是为什么我花大量时间做个股研究，让大家在面对噪音时能建立自己的信念。

很不幸，这就是现代美国散户→机构之间流动性转移周期的常态。

它们不以散户投资者的利益为出发点。

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? 以防你没有注意到…… 大盘指数已经显著下跌了 -3% 到 -4%。 股票不会一路直线上涨，除非你是 $SNDK。 个股也会很大程度受到更广泛抛售的影响。 好奇我的粉丝组合现在是什么样：如果这周只做多，你们还是绿色的吗？

📝 推文原文：

Just in case you weren’t aware…

The broader index is down a significant -3-4%.

Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK.

And are largely affected by wider selloffs.

Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only?

以防你没有注意到……

大盘指数已经显著下跌了 -3% 到 -4%。

股票不会一路直线上涨，除非你是 $SNDK。

个股也会很大程度受到更广泛抛售的影响。

好奇我的粉丝组合现在是什么样：如果这周只做多，你们还是绿色的吗？

📝 推文原文：

Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK. Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks. Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things 我仍然持有我的 $AXTI，也持有其他我没怎么提到的标的，比如 $ALRIB 或 $LPK。 不过 AXT 的逻辑并不一样，其中一部分是担心稀释，因此有新的流通盘结构风险。 另一部分是不想因为讨论某些事情而引发更多出口管制。

📝 推文原文：

Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK.

Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks.

Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things

我仍然持有我的 $AXTI，也持有其他我没怎么提到的标的，比如 $ALRIB 或 $LPK。

不过 AXT 的逻辑并不一样，其中一部分是担心稀释，因此有新的流通盘结构风险。

另一部分是不想因为讨论某些事情而引发更多出口管制。

📝 推文原文：

I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well. Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently. 我预期 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 以及欧洲供应链里的其他公司也会跟随领涨、继续修复。 最近光子学 / 电源半导体一起被抛售了。

📝 推文原文：

I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well.

Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.

我预期 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 以及欧洲供应链里的其他公司也会跟随领涨、继续修复。

最近光子学 / 电源半导体一起被抛售了。

📝 推文原文：

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. 很高兴看到从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 再到 $SIVE 的光学标的正在小幅修复，这才是它们本该有的表现。 最初那波抛售纯属愚蠢。

📝 推文原文：

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should.

The initial selloff was just stupid.

很高兴看到从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 再到 $SIVE 的光学标的正在小幅修复，这才是它们本该有的表现。

最初那波抛售纯属愚蠢。

📝 推文原文：

That’s correct with $SIVE and Blackrock after MSCI/nasdaq. Blackrock is passive and tracks sivers based on MC. Fidelity Research is their active investment arm, so that’s not passive. 关于 $SIVE 和 BlackRock 的判断是对的，MSCI/Nasdaq 之后，BlackRock 是被动跟踪市值配置 Sivers。 Fidelity Research 则是他们的主动投资部门，所以那不是被动配置。

📝 推文原文：

That’s correct with $SIVE and Blackrock after MSCI/nasdaq. Blackrock is passive and tracks sivers based on MC.

Fidelity Research is their active investment arm, so that’s not passive.

关于 $SIVE 和 BlackRock 的判断是对的，MSCI/Nasdaq 之后，BlackRock 是被动跟踪市值配置 Sivers。

Fidelity Research 则是他们的主动投资部门，所以那不是被动配置。

📝 推文原文：

Bro everything has technical obstacles. I can bear post about HBM4 yields or glass substrate yields and basically everything too. $NVDA is a $5T company, they’re not $ASTS. I’m sure they know timelines and difficulties, so projections should be accurate. 兄弟，任何事情都有技术障碍。我也可以发关于 HBM4 良率、玻璃基板良率之类的帖子，基本上什么都能挑毛病。 $NVDA 是一家 5 万亿美元公司，不是 $ASTS。 我相信他们清楚自己的时间线和难点，所以产业端的预期应该是准确的。

📝 推文原文：

Bro everything has technical obstacles. I can bear post about HBM4 yields or glass substrate yields and basically everything too.

$NVDA is a $5T company, they’re not $ASTS.

I’m sure they know timelines and difficulties, so projections should be accurate.

兄弟，任何事情都有技术障碍。我也可以发关于 HBM4 良率、玻璃基板良率之类的帖子，基本上什么都能挑毛病。

$NVDA 是一家 5 万亿美元公司，不是 $ASTS。

我相信他们清楚自己的时间线和难点，所以产业端的预期应该是准确的。

📝 推文原文：

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions. 是的，BlackRock 现在已经在指数纳入后以被动持有人身份进入 $SIVE 持仓。Fidelity Research 也开始直接持有 Sivers。还记得上个月 JP Morgan 先出现小仓位吗……随后买到了公司约 5.25%？这看起来像是美国机构验证了 Sivers 在光子学中的位置，并正在尝试积累仓位。

📝 推文原文：

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

是的，BlackRock 现在已经在指数纳入后以被动持有人身份进入 $SIVE 持仓。Fidelity Research 也开始直接持有 Sivers。还记得上个月 JP Morgan 先出现小仓位吗……随后买到了公司约 5.25%？这看起来像是美国机构验证了 Sivers 在光子学中的位置，并正在尝试积累仓位。

📝 推文原文：

If you want a TLDR of today: > be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO > analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! > market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” > Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ??? 如果要总结今天：作为 $NVDA，一个 5 万亿美元公司，推动转向 800V DC 和 CPO；分析师说：“我不觉得你能按时做到！”市场说：“我不相信 Nvidia，卖掉一切。”随后 Nvidia 和 Lumentum 高管都表示：看多 CPO，时间线正在加速。？？？

📝 推文原文：

If you want a TLDR of today: > be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO > analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! > market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” > Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???

如果要总结今天：作为 $NVDA，一个 5 万亿美元公司，推动转向 800V DC 和 CPO；分析师说：“我不觉得你能按时做到！”市场说：“我不相信 Nvidia，卖掉一切。”随后 Nvidia 和 Lumentum 高管都表示：看多 CPO，时间线正在加速。？？？

📝 推文原文：

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities. $LITE 管理层在今天瑞穗科技会议上的发言：公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 CPO scale-up 光学产品，并在 2028 年正式爬坡。没有延迟，因为这与此前分享的时间线一致。所以今天我们也得到了 $NVDA 高级副总裁确认：CPO scale-out 时间线 2026H2 没有延迟，并且正在开始量产。$LITE 管理层也表示 CPO scale-up 时间线没有延迟。Nvidia 和 Lumentum 这些领先公司，大概率比那些错误分析师报告更清楚自己的时间线。两家公司都对 TAM 和机会极度看多。

📝 推文原文：

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.

$LITE 管理层在今天瑞穗科技会议上的发言：公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 CPO scale-up 光学产品，并在 2028 年正式爬坡。没有延迟，因为这与此前分享的时间线一致。所以今天我们也得到了 $NVDA 高级副总裁确认：CPO scale-out 时间线 2026H2 没有延迟，并且正在开始量产。$LITE 管理层也表示 CPO scale-up 时间线没有延迟。Nvidia 和 Lumentum 这些领先公司，大概率比那些错误分析师报告更清楚自己的时间线。两家公司都对 TAM 和机会极度看多。